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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd