A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
